AIGC行业投资手册：挖掘美股“七巨头”外的AI软件核心标的

Industry Overview - The AI software industry is rapidly evolving, with Sora being a milestone product following ChatGPT, signaling a shift towards AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) [1] - AI is considered one of the most promising investment directions for the next decade, with AI+ expected to reshape most industries [1] - The report focuses on AI software companies outside the "Big Seven" (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta), highlighting 10 key players in the US market [1] Key Companies and Their AI-Driven Innovations Adobe (ADBE US) - Adobe is a leader in creative design software with flagship products like Photoshop and Acrobat PDF, boasting a high profit margin of nearly 40% [1] - The company introduced Firefly, a generative AI model, in March 2023, addressing copyright issues by using Adobe Stock for training data [3] - Adobe's revenue is primarily driven by its Digital Media segment, contributing 73% of total revenue in FY23, with Creative Cloud accounting for 80% of this segment [5] - The company holds a dominant market position in graphic design and PDF software, with a combined market share of 80% and 95% respectively [6] CrowdStrike (CRWD US) - CrowdStrike is a global leader in endpoint security, leveraging AI to prevent cyber threats through its Falcon Platform [9] - The company's subscription revenue accounts for 94% of total revenue, with a TAM (Total Addressable Market) of $100 billion, expected to grow to $225 billion by 2028 [10][11] - CrowdStrike holds a 17 7% market share in endpoint security, slightly ahead of Microsoft [12] Duolingo (DUOL US) - Duolingo is the largest language learning platform globally, with 88 million monthly active users, integrating gamification and AI to enhance user engagement [16] - The company launched Duolingo Max, a premium AI-powered product, in collaboration with OpenAI's ChatGPT-4 [16] - Duolingo's revenue is expected to grow by 36% in FY24, driven by subscription and advertising income [21] MongoDB (MDB US) - MongoDB is a leading NoSQL database platform, with over 200 million downloads and 30,000 customers globally [23] - The company's Atlas product, a fully managed cloud database, contributes 66% of total revenue [25] - MongoDB holds a 46% market share in the NoSQL database sector, significantly ahead of competitors like Amazon DynamoDB [26] Palantir (PLTR US) - Palantir specializes in big data analytics, with strong ties to the US government and a growing commercial business [29] - The company's AIP platform, launched in April 2023, integrates large language models into private networks for enhanced data analysis and decision-making [31] - Palantir's revenue is expected to grow by 20% in 2024, with a focus on expanding its commercial client base [32] Salesforce (CRM US) - Salesforce is the global leader in CRM, with a 23 8% market share, and has been expanding its AI capabilities through acquisitions and in-house development [34][37] - The company introduced AI Cloud in June 2023, offering generative AI services to enhance productivity in sales, marketing, and customer service [34] - Salesforce's revenue is projected to grow by 9% in FY25, with a focus on subscription and support services [38] ServiceNow (NOW US) - ServiceNow is a leader in IT service management, covering 85% of Fortune 500 companies, with a strong focus on AI-driven automation [40] - The company launched Now Assist for Virtual Agent in June 2023, leveraging generative AI to improve customer service experiences [42] - ServiceNow's subscription revenue is expected to grow by 21 5%-22% in FY24, driven by platform upgrades and cross-selling [45] Snowflake (SNOW US) - Snowflake is a leading cloud data warehouse provider, offering scalable and flexible data storage solutions [48] - The company's revenue model is based on usage, with a focus on optimizing storage and reducing cloud costs for customers [49] - Snowflake holds an 18 3% market share in the data warehouse sector, competing with Amazon Redshift and Databricks [50] UiPath (PATH US) - UiPath is a global leader in RPA (Robotic Process Automation), with a 36% market share, automating repetitive business processes [53][56] - The company's revenue is primarily driven by subscription services, accounting for 51 4% of total revenue, with a TAM of $610 billion expected to grow to $930 billion [55] - UiPath's revenue is projected to grow by 21 5% in FY24, with a focus on expanding its cloud-based offerings [57] Unity (U US) - Unity is a leading real-time 3D development platform, used in 70% of the top 1000 mobile games, with applications extending beyond gaming to industries like film and automotive [59] - The company's revenue is split between Create Solutions (content development) and Grow Solutions (marketing services), with a focus on monetization and user acquisition [60][61] - Unity's core revenue is expected to grow by 3% in FY24, with a focus on expanding its non-gaming applications [63] Financial Performance and Valuation - Adobe's FY24 revenue is projected at $21 4 billion, with a 10% YoY growth, and an adjusted EPS of $17 8 [7] - CrowdStrike's FY25 revenue is expected to reach $3 92-$3 99 billion, with a 29% YoY growth [13] - MongoDB's FY24 revenue is forecasted at $1 65-$1 66 billion, with a 29% YoY growth [27] - Palantir's FY24 revenue is projected at $2 65-$2 67 billion, with a 20% YoY growth [32] - Salesforce's FY25 revenue is expected to be $37 7-$38 billion, with a 9% YoY growth [38] - ServiceNow's FY24 subscription revenue is projected at $10 55-$10 57 billion, with a 21 5%-22% YoY growth [45] - Snowflake's FY25 product revenue is expected to reach $3 25 billion, with a 22% YoY growth [51] - UiPath's FY24 revenue is projected at $1 28-$1 29 billion, with a 21 5% YoY growth [57] - Unity's FY24 core revenue is expected to be $1 76-$1 8 billion, with a 3% YoY growth [63]