对2024年政府工作报告的几点理解

Economic Growth - The GDP growth target for 2024 is set at 5%, aligning with market expectations[3] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 82.5% last year, but the growth rate is expected to decline this year due to base effect[15] - Export performance is anticipated to improve slightly compared to last year, driven by overseas inventory replenishment[15] Policy Continuity - The economic policy framework remains consistent with the December 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing a supportive fiscal and monetary policy environment[4] - A fiscal deficit target of 3% has been established, with plans to issue CNY 1 trillion in special long-term bonds this year[4][20] - Monetary policy will continue to be flexible and effective, ensuring adequate liquidity in the market[20] Real Estate and Employment - The real estate sector is expected to see a slight reduction in decline due to new financing policies and support for project completion[15] - The government aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs this year, with a focus on supporting industries with high employment capacity[4][38] - Emphasis on equal support for reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises across different ownership types[33] Risks and Challenges - Global inflation exceeding expectations poses a risk of global recession[5] - Domestic economic recovery faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations[14]