Orient Securities·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Views - The company has sufficient funds in place for the repayment of its dollar bonds due on March 11, 2024, indicating a well-organized debt repayment strategy [2]. - Despite a significant contraction in the overall real estate sales scale, the company has demonstrated resilience, with a contract sales decline of only 9.8% compared to a 17.7% drop among the top 100 real estate companies [2]. - The company possesses a large volume of operational assets, which can be leveraged through asset disposals, issuance of REITs, and operational property loans to alleviate cash flow pressures [2]. - Recent policies from the central bank allow operational property loans to be used for repaying public debts, which is beneficial for companies like this one that hold substantial non-real estate assets [2]. - The establishment of financing coordination mechanisms across various cities is expected to stabilize the funding chain and construction timelines for quality projects [2]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 495,222 million yuan, with a slight decline of 1.7% year-on-year, and is expected to recover to 477,367 million yuan in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 21,461 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 5.1% decrease from the previous year, with a recovery anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.80 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 1.71 yuan in 2024, before rising to 1.84 yuan in 2025 [2]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be 18.5% in 2023, slightly improving to 19.0% by 2025 [2].