2024年1-2月进出口数据点评

Economic Performance - In January-February 2024, China's export value increased by 7.1% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.7%[3] - Import value rose by 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.2%[3] - The major export products showed a significant recovery in quantity, with labor-intensive products like clothing and textiles seeing increased export values[3] Regional Export Trends - Exports to South Korea decreased by 6.8 percentage points to -9.9%, while exports to Japan fell by 2.4 percentage points to -9.7%[3] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12.1 percentage points to 6.0%, with notable increases to Vietnam (19.8%), Malaysia (4.2%), and Thailand (12.1%)[3] - Exports to the United States rose by 11.9 percentage points to 5.0%, while exports to the EU increased by 0.6 percentage points to -1.3%[3] Product-Specific Insights - Mobile phone exports saw a decline of 17.89 percentage points to -18.24%, indicating a low market demand[3] - Home appliances continued to grow by 6.1% to 20.81%, while integrated circuits increased by 21.68% to 24.27%[3] - Shipbuilding exports surged by 144.58% to 173.13%, maintaining a high growth rate[3] Import Dynamics - Imports of grains and soybeans continued to decline, with rates of -14.86% and -22.20% respectively, primarily affected by quantity[3] - The import growth rate for bulk commodities like iron ore and copper showed a decrease, while crude oil imports increased in both volume and price[3] - The overall import situation reflects a recovery in industrial raw materials, but remains below the PMI index, indicating fragile production recovery[3] Global Economic Context - Global manufacturing PMIs for the U.S., Eurozone, Japan, and South Korea showed declines in February, indicating a slowdown in economic recovery[3] - The current down cycle is estimated to last around four months, from December 2023 to March 2024, with GDP growth expected to stabilize between 4-5%[3] - The report maintains a cautious outlook on export growth, predicting marginal stability and slight increases throughout the year[3]