Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Lusi Stock (832419) with a target price range of 13.24-15.89 yuan for 2024, based on a 15-18x PE multiple [5][91] Core Views - Lusi Stock is a leading pet food company with a dual-drive business model focusing on both domestic and international markets [2] - The company has a strong presence in the overseas market, particularly in Europe, while rapidly expanding its domestic brand [2][28] - Lusi is transitioning from a meat-based snack focus to a more diversified product portfolio, including pet staple food, which is expected to become a second growth engine [3][38] - The company is strategically investing in R&D and expanding production capacity, both domestically and in Cambodia, to capture growth opportunities in the US and Chinese markets [3][72][73] Company Overview - Lusi Stock has a stable ownership structure, with Guo Hongqian and Guo Baili as the actual controllers, holding 37.78% and 4.72% of shares respectively [23] - The company has experienced steady revenue growth, with total revenue increasing from 339 million yuan in 2018 to 549 million yuan in 2022, representing a CAGR of 12.8% [26] - Overseas business remains the core revenue source, accounting for 66.5% of total revenue in 2022, down from 83.4% in 2021 due to rapid domestic brand development [2][28] - Meat-based snacks are the main revenue driver, contributing 70.7% of total revenue in 2022, while staple food production capacity added in 2022 is expected to drive future growth [2][32] Industry Analysis - The global pet food market is growing steadily, with the US being the largest market, expected to reach $155.04 billion by 2025 with a CAGR of 8% from 2018-2025 [2][46] - Europe is another significant market, with pet food sales reaching 29.1 billion euros in 2022, up 3.5% from the three-year average [2][52] - China's pet food market has grown rapidly, expanding from 27.8 billion yuan in 2018 to 50.7 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 16% [2][60] - Staple food is the core category in China's pet food market, accounting for 87.8% of the total market in 2022 [60] Growth Drivers - Domestic staple food production: Lusi has invested in a 30,000-ton pet staple food project, with Phase I contributing over 30 million yuan in revenue in H1 2023 [3][38] - Overseas capacity expansion: The company is building 3,000-ton and 7,500-ton pet snack projects in Cambodia to target the US market [72][81] - R&D investment: Lusi has a higher R&D expense ratio than peers, with at least 10 new products developed each quarter [3][82] - Diversification: The company is expanding into pet nutrition and health products through strategic investments [77] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 696 million yuan in 2023E to 1.073 billion yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 21.7% [7][86] - Net profit is projected to increase from 69 million yuan in 2023E to 118 million yuan in 2025E [7][91] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 20.2% in 2023E to 21.5% in 2025E, driven by staple food production and domestic brand development [90] - R&D expense ratio is expected to remain above 3% from 2023E to 2025E, reflecting the company's focus on product innovation [90]
公司研究报告：产能建设乘时乘势，主粮、海外业务开启双增长