Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for JD com Inc with a target price of HKD 127, compared to the current price of HKD 92 6 [1] Core Views - JD com's Q4 2023 revenue reached RMB 306 1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3 6%, exceeding expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2023 was RMB 8 42 billion, up 9 9% year-on-year [1] - Full-year 2023 revenue was RMB 1,084 7 billion, a 3 7% increase year-on-year, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders rising 24 7% to RMB 35 2 billion [1] - The company announced a cash dividend of approximately USD 1 2 billion and a new share repurchase plan of up to USD 3 billion over the next 36 months, demonstrating confidence in long-term growth [1] Business Performance - In Q4 2023, JD com's merchandise revenue was RMB 246 5 billion, up 3 7% year-on-year, with 3C and home appliance revenue increasing 6 1% to RMB 150 3 billion [1] - Service revenue grew 3 0% year-on-year to RMB 59 6 billion, with logistics and other service revenue increasing 8 1% to RMB 36 billion [1] - The number of POP merchants on the platform grew 188% year-on-year, with new merchants increasing 4 3 times [1] Profitability - JD Retail's operating profit margin in Q4 2023 was 2 6%, down 0 4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - JD Logistics achieved an operating profit of RMB 1 33 billion, with a margin of 2 8%, up 0 7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - New businesses reduced losses to RMB 800 million, significantly improving from a loss of RMB 1 36 billion in the same period last year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 1 2 trillion in 2024, RMB 1 3 trillion in 2025, and RMB 1 3 trillion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 8 1%, 7 0%, and 6 1% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 35 5 billion in 2024, RMB 39 2 billion in 2025, and RMB 43 1 billion in 2026 [1] Valuation - The target market capitalization for 2024 is HKD 405 3 billion, with a target price of HKD 127 per share [1] - The P/E ratio is estimated at 11 1x for 2023, 10 2x for 2024, 11 4x for 2025, and 10 4x for 2026 [5]
2023年四季报和全年财报点评：业绩超预期，加码股东回报