CNOOC(600938) 国信证券·2024-03-09 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][7]. Core Views - CNOOC announced the discovery of the Kai Ping South oil field in the South China Sea, which is the largest deep-water oil field discovered in China to date, with geological reserves of 102 million tons of oil equivalent [4][5]. - The company has a strong focus on offshore oil and gas exploration, with significant capital expenditure in this area, and is well-positioned to benefit from the global offshore oil and gas resource richness [5][11]. - CNOOC's management is efficient, and the company has a strong focus on upstream business profitability, with free cash flow growth expected to outpace profit growth [14]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Kai Ping South oil field is located in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, approximately 300 kilometers southwest of Shenzhen, with a maximum water depth of 532 meters and a maximum well depth of 4,831 meters. The discovery well encountered a 100.6-meter oil and gas layer, with an average daily production exceeding 1,000 tons [4][10]. Market Potential - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global offshore oil and gas resources account for over 30% of total resources, with an estimated 160 billion barrels of oil and 58 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In 2022, global offshore exploration investment reached $48.3 billion, with CNOOC accounting for 5.9% of total exploration investment and 11.6% of offshore exploration investment [5][11]. Operational Efficiency - CNOOC has been operating in partnership with global oil and gas giants since the 1980s, benefiting from advancements in domestic equipment manufacturing and new offshore exploration technologies, leading to reduced oil production costs [14]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for CNOOC's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023-2025 is 134.9 billion, 154.5 billion, and 178.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.84, 3.25, and 3.75 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.9, 8.6, and 7.5 times [7][22].