Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (maintained) [1] Core Views - The automotive industry in 2024 is expected to focus on earnings (EPS) rather than valuation (PE) [1][5] - The key theme for 2024 is the transition from new energy to intelligent vehicles, with the trend expected to strengthen [1] - The domestic market performance will be driven by the trend of consumption downgrading, while the overseas market will benefit from the stability and cost-effectiveness of Chinese supply chains [1][6][7] - A significant cognitive gap in 2024 may be the systematic revaluation of state-owned automotive assets, with commercial vehicles leading and passenger vehicles following [1][8] Industry Configuration Strategy - The strategy for 2024 should not overly rely on policy but focus on identifying cognitive gaps [1][10] - Key opportunities include: - Commercial Vehicles: The upward cycle in the commercial vehicle sector is expected to outperform market expectations, driven by both domestic and international demand and the revaluation of state-owned assets [1][10] - Electrification: Structural opportunities in the electrification logic, particularly in the domestic luxury car market, where the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the market share of domestic brands are expected to rise from 30% to 50% [1][10] - L3 Intelligent Vehicles: Strategic investment opportunities in the reshaping of the automotive landscape due to L3 intelligent vehicle innovation, with 2024 being an optimal time for investment [1][10] Domestic Market Performance (EPS) - The growth of domestic market performance in 2024 will be driven by the trend of consumption downgrading [6] - Passenger Vehicles: The luxury car market (above 300,000 RMB) is least affected by price wars, with new energy penetration and domestic brand market share expected to grow by double digits [6] - Components: Companies should either align with luxury car manufacturers or innovate to reduce costs significantly to find better profit margins [6] - Commercial Vehicles: The growth of natural gas heavy trucks is also a reflection of consumption downgrading, reducing logistics costs [6] Overseas Market Performance (EPS) - The overseas market has become a significant variable for the automotive industry since 2020, with Chinese supply chains proving stable and cost-effective [7] - Exports: Chinese fuel vehicle exports are expected to maintain double-digit growth in Belt and Road countries, while new energy vehicles will accelerate their entry [7] - Localization: The process of localizing production in Europe and North America will accelerate, with overseas manufacturers increasingly relying on Chinese supply chains while mitigating political risks [7] State-Owned Automotive Assets Revaluation - The revaluation of state-owned automotive assets is a key cognitive gap for 2024 [8][9] - Commercial Vehicles: The sector is expected to benefit from both bottom-up fundamentals and top-down policy support [9] - Passenger Vehicles: The cooperation between Huawei's automotive BU and state-owned enterprises will be a significant factor [9]
汽车行业点评报告：汽车行研札记01期，2024年业绩＞估值
东吴证券·2024-03-10 16:00