往事如金：金价蕴藏的宏大叙事

Group 1: Gold Price Analysis - Current gold prices are significantly high compared to the 10Y US Treasury yield, which suggests a disconnection from traditional pricing models, indicating that gold should be around $850 per ounce based on historical yield relationships[29] - The rise in gold prices cannot solely be attributed to inflation hedging, suggesting that market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or increased risk aversion may be influencing prices[31] - The increase in gold prices is linked to geopolitical tensions and potential financial risks, with events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and upcoming US elections contributing to market uncertainty[36] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - In 2024, approximately 50 countries will hold elections, creating uncertainty that could support gold prices[46] - Major economies, including the US and Eurozone, have likely concluded their rate hike cycles, with the focus now on when rate cuts will begin, suggesting a trend towards increased global liquidity[39] - Historical trends indicate that gold prices in China have outperformed international prices during periods of domestic liquidity shortages, highlighting the importance of liquidity in price movements[15]