Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2024-03-10 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Prada SpA, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][16]. Core Insights - Prada's 4Q23 net revenue grew by approximately 18.1% year-over-year, driven by a remarkable 82% growth in the Miu Miu brand, surpassing expectations [2]. - The company reported strong growth across all regions, particularly in Japan (cFX +38%) and APAC (cFX +32%), while the US showed sequential improvement [2]. - Management confirmed positive sales momentum has continued into 2024, with expectations of sustained growth despite challenging market conditions [2]. - Prada plans to implement routine price hikes of 4-8% in 2024, focusing on clothing and leather goods, which is expected to support long-term margin expansion [2]. - The closure of outlet stores is progressing, with this segment contributing only about 10% to overall sales, set to be phased out in the next 2-3 years [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from EUR 4,726 million in FY23A to EUR 5,091 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.7% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from EUR 671 million in FY23A to EUR 739 million in FY24E, with a year-over-year growth of 10.1% [3]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 80.8% for FY24E, with EBIT margin projected at 22.9% [8]. - The target price for Prada is set at HK$65.2, representing a 17.1% upside from the current price of HK$55.7 [4]. Earnings Revisions - The earnings estimates for 2024E have been revised to reflect a revenue increase to EUR 5,091 million, up from EUR 5,008 million previously [7]. - Gross profit estimates for 2024E have been adjusted to EUR 4,113 million, indicating a 2.0% increase from prior estimates [7]. - Net profit for 2024E is now projected at EUR 739 million, a slight increase from the previous estimate of EUR 732 million [7].