2023年四季报点评：业绩超预期，各运营指标实现强劲增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 2.408 billion yuan in Q4 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.3%, with Non-GAAP net profit reaching 733 million yuan, up 64.4% year-on-year [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company expects revenue to be between 2.11 billion and 2.16 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 23.9% to 27.1% [2] - The owner structure continues to optimize, with the fulfillment rate reaching a historical high, and the average shipper MAU for Q4 2023 was 2.24 million, up 18.7% year-on-year [3] - Commission income in Q4 2023 was 640 million yuan, a 44.0% increase year-on-year, driven by an increase in order quantity and penetration rate [3] - The company’s gross margin in Q4 2023 was 52.1%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit margin reached 30.3%, up 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted upwards to 10.5 billion and 13.5 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 25% and 28% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.503 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.521 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% [2] - The company’s PE ratio (Non-GAAP) is projected to decrease from 35.50 in 2022 to 7.85 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [2]