大类资产每周观察

Group 1: Economic Indicators - US January CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, dampening market optimism for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields to new highs[3] - Core PCE inflation in the US has entered an optimistic range under high interest rate constraints, indicating a potential shallow recession or soft landing for the US economy[3] - China's social financing and credit data showed strong performance in January, with consumption during the Spring Festival holiday expected to improve marginally[3] Group 2: Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks led gains, while gold prices declined, reflecting a mixed performance across major asset classes[5] - The stock-bond risk premium recorded at 4.13%, down 0.3% from last week, indicating a high level of external capital risk premium[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 27 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to economic data and interest rate expectations[64] Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to adjust allocations towards risk assets (stocks) and short positions on safe-haven assets (government bonds) in the current market environment[3] - For commodities, a strategy of buying dips in non-ferrous and chemical-related industrial products is suggested, while shorting infrastructure-related black industrial products during rebounds[3] - The strategy for precious metals suggests buying gold and silver on pullbacks, anticipating a stabilization phase[3]