国有行专题报告：利好因素加码，配置价值显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking industry, particularly focusing on state-owned banks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The profitability of state-owned banks is expected to remain stable, supported by high dividend yields and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The report highlights the strong potential for valuation recovery due to multiple positive factors, including institutional low positions and government support for large financial institutions [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Stability - The report anticipates that the profit growth rate of state-owned banks will remain stable in 2024, driven by their role in counter-cyclical adjustments and maintaining a relatively fast loan growth rate [7][12]. - Although asset yields are expected to decline, the release of policy dividends on the liability side is likely to alleviate the pressure on net interest margins, supporting stable revenue growth [7][12]. - The asset quality of major banks is projected to remain stable, with sufficient provisioning capabilities to support steady profit growth [7][30]. - From a capital perspective, the necessity for maintaining net profit growth and stable internal capital replenishment is increasing due to G-SIBs and TLAC compliance requirements [7]. 2. High Dividend Attractiveness - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates, the investment value of high-dividend stocks is rising. The banking sector's dividend yield stands at 5.29%, with state-owned banks averaging 5.35%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield by over 300 basis points [1][2]. - The stability of dividends from state-owned banks is strong, with a consistent payout ratio of around 30% over the past five years, ensuring reliable dividend income for investors [1][2]. 3. Funding Support - The report notes that funding support for the banking sector is gradually forming, with domestic institutions maintaining low positions and expectations for increased market funding. As of the end of 2023, the allocation of active equity public funds to the banking sector was only 1.92%, indicating significant room for increased investment [2][3]. - The central government is expected to inject substantial capital into the sector, enhancing market confidence and supporting the banking sector [2][3]. 4. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the valuation of state-owned banks is likely to recover due to strong support from stable profitability, high dividend attractiveness, low institutional positions, and government backing [2][3]. - As of March 1, 2024, the price-to-book ratio for state-owned banks was 0.59, reflecting a recovery from the low point at the end of 2022 [2].