LIJIANG TOURISM(SZ:002033) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-03-12 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [8][17]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 152% [8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a dividend yield of 3.68% [8]. - The report highlights the continuous verification of the company's business climate, particularly during the 2024 Spring Festival [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022: 317 million yuan - 2023: 799 million yuan - 2024E: 867 million yuan - 2025E: 949 million yuan - 2026E: 1,000 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023: 152%, 2024E: 9%, 2025E: 9%, 2026E: 5% [8][10]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022: 4 million yuan - 2023: 227 million yuan - 2024E: 272 million yuan - 2025E: 309 million yuan - 2026E: 337 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023: 6,072%, 2024E: 20%, 2025E: 14%, 2026E: 9% [8][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022: 0.01 yuan - 2023: 0.41 yuan - 2024E: 0.49 yuan - 2025E: 0.56 yuan - 2026E: 0.61 yuan [8][10]. - Cash Flow: - Operating cash flow for 2023 is projected at 405 million yuan, increasing to 513 million yuan by 2026 [15]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize at around 10% from 2024 onwards [10][20]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is projected to rise from 0.59% in 2023 to 17.19% by 2026, indicating a gradual increase in leverage [20]. Business Segments - Cableway Business: - The report emphasizes the growth in visitor numbers for the Yunshanping and Yangniuping cableways, with a significant increase in total visitors in 2023 [8]. - Hotel Business: - The Lijiang HeFu Hotel Company achieved a net profit of 368.34 million yuan in 2023, indicating a positive trend in hotel operations [8]. - Cost Management: - The company has effectively controlled its management and sales expenses, with a sales expense ratio of 3.36% in 2023 [8].