CSG有望重回增长通道，展望FY25整体营收稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [23]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $88.425 billion for FY2024, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of $3.211 billion, which is a 31.5% increase year-on-year [2][25]. - The fourth quarter of FY2024 showed strong earnings performance, with a diluted EPS exceeding previous guidance at $4.09 per share, driven by effective cost control measures [3][7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in the PC market, with the CSG business expected to achieve low single-digit growth in FY2025 due to a replacement cycle and strong demand in the commercial market [6][7]. Financial Performance - For FY2024 Q4, the company reported revenues of $22.318 billion, a decline of 11% year-on-year, but a net profit of $1.160 billion, reflecting an 89% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for FY2024 Q4 was 23.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.2%, up by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company expects ISG revenue to grow by 14%-19% year-on-year in Q1 FY2025, contributing to an overall revenue forecast of $210-220 billion for the quarter [28]. Business Segments - The ISG segment reported revenues of $9.332 billion for FY2024 Q4, down 6% year-on-year, primarily due to delayed recovery in storage demand [3]. - The CSG segment generated revenues of $11.715 billion for FY2024 Q4, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, attributed to weak demand in the PC market [3]. - AI-optimized server sales reached $800 million in FY2024 Q4, with a 40% increase in order value quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong demand driven by AI [3][7]. Future Outlook - The company projects FY2025 overall revenue to be in the range of $910-950 billion, with ISG revenue expected to grow by 14%-16% year-on-year [28]. - The report highlights that the recovery in the PC market, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and advancements in AI architecture, will support growth in the CSG segment [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, estimating net profits of $3.211 billion, $4.268 billion, and $4.812 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of $4.51, $6.00, and $6.76 [7][25].