宏观观察2024年第16期（总第527期）：2024年《政府工作报告》解读之二：新一轮“大规模设备更新”将激发多大投资潜能？＊

Investment Impact - The large-scale equipment update is expected to increase fixed asset investment growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points[11] - In 2023, investment in equipment and tools accounted for about 14% of total fixed asset investment[1] Policy Support - Recent meetings emphasized the importance of large-scale equipment updates to stimulate investment and consumption, aligning with the goal of expanding domestic demand[6] - The government is considering re-establishing special loans and tax reductions to encourage enterprises to actively participate in equipment updates[11] Industry Transformation - The equipment update aims to promote high-end, intelligent, and green development in industries, focusing on improving technology and reducing emissions[5] - The update will particularly target energy-intensive equipment and public service devices, enhancing efficiency and reducing carbon emissions[22] Economic Context - The manufacturing investment cycle is currently in a downward phase, necessitating a focus on updating existing equipment to stimulate growth[12] - Industrial product inventory growth is low, indicating that the manufacturing sector has not yet entered a full expansion phase[14] Environmental Goals - The new equipment update is aligned with national energy consumption and emission reduction targets, aiming for a 13.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2025[19] - The initiative is expected to lead to significant reductions in carbon emissions, with potential annual reductions of approximately 1.2 billion tons[54]