Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) with a target price of HKD 257.63, based on a 18x PE for 2024 [4][5]. Core Insights - ZTO Express has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective March 4, 2024, which is expected to enhance its market liquidity and valuation [3]. - The company achieved a total business volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.8%, maintaining a market share of 22.9% [3]. - The profitability of ZTO Express continues to improve, with a net profit of CNY 23.5 billion in Q3 2023, up 24.0% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 23.4 billion, reflecting a 25.0% increase [3]. - The company has increased its share buyback program from USD 1 billion to USD 1.5 billion, which is expected to boost market confidence [3]. - The report projects net profits for 2023, 2024, and 2025 to be CNY 90 billion, CNY 107 billion, and CNY 123 billion respectively, up from previous estimates [3]. Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 824 million, with a circulating share count of 617 million [5]. - Total market capitalization: HKD 142.058 billion, circulating market value: HKD 106.505 billion [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are CNY 10.96, CNY 12.99, and CNY 14.93 respectively [5][10]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from CNY 39.244 billion in 2023 to CNY 52.677 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [10].
中通纳入港股通，重视低估值龙一配置价值