环保行业高股息策略系列报告（二）：绿证交易、热电联产开新源，看好垃圾焚烧分红潜力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The waste incineration market is becoming saturated, leading to intensified competition and diversified development among companies. The proportion of urban waste incineration in the total harmless treatment volume exceeded 50% in 2020 and reached 75% by 2022. The new market space is limited as the capacity for urban waste incineration approaches saturation [2][13] - Green certificate trading and combined heat and power generation are expected to maintain high profitability levels for waste incineration projects. Despite a downward trend in revenue due to subsidy adjustments, the introduction of green certificate trading and exploration in combined heat and power generation can offset some of the impacts from subsidy reductions. Under certain scenarios, the revenue from waste incineration projects could still see a 9% increase even after the complete withdrawal of national subsidies [2][4] - Waste incineration companies currently have a low commitment to dividend payout ratios, but they exhibit strong dividend capability and willingness. Companies like Shougang Environmental Protection have a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30% of distributable profits, consistently meeting this requirement over the past five years [2][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The waste incineration sector has established a core position in solid waste management, with a shift towards incineration as the primary method since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" [9][13] - The industry has a strong concentration, with a relatively low proportion of state-owned enterprises compared to the water industry, allowing private enterprises to maintain a significant presence [17][18] Financial Performance - The profitability of waste incineration projects remains relatively strong despite subsidy policy adjustments. The expected decline in capital expenditure intensity may enhance the dividend capabilities of waste incineration companies [4][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong profitability in solid waste management and those investing in new energy and materials, such as Weiming Environmental Protection and Shougang Environmental Protection [4][21] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies as potential investment targets, including Weiming Environmental Protection (603568, Buy), Shougang Environmental Protection (600008, Not Rated), and Shanghai Environment (601200, Not Rated) [4][21] - The report emphasizes the potential for waste incineration companies to maintain stable cash flows and high dividend yields in the current macroeconomic environment [4][25]