AIA(01299) 开源证券·2024-03-14 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [16][10]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 New Business Value (NBV) reached USD 4.03 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, exceeding previous expectations. The growth in NBV is attributed to a rapid recovery in mainland China and Hong Kong [6][16]. - The company has adjusted its 2024-2025 NBV growth forecasts to +12.4% and +10.8%, respectively, down from previous estimates of +16.3% and +14.1%. A new forecast for 2026 NBV growth is set at +10.4% [6][16]. - The company's margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 52.6% in 2023, although it still represents a year-on-year decline of 4.4 percentage points [6][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total premium income of HKD 324 billion for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [18]. - The NBV for mainland China increased by 13.2% year-on-year, while Hong Kong's NBV surged by 81.7%, making it the top contributor [6][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 2.8, HKD 3.0, and HKD 3.2, respectively [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in mainland China and Hong Kong is driven by the resurgence of offline activities and rapid growth in bancassurance channels, with mainland visitors contributing significantly to Hong Kong's NBV [6][7]. - The ASEAN region, including Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, continues to show recovery, with NBV growth rates of 21.9%, 12.9%, and 3.6%, respectively [7][18].