PAB(SZ:000001) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-14 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit growth remain stable, with 2023 revenue at 164.7 billion yuan (YoY, -8.4%) and net profit at 46.5 billion yuan (YoY, +2.1%) [3] - The net interest margin has narrowed, with a 2023 net interest margin of 2.38%, down 37 basis points YoY, and a quarterly net interest margin of 2.11% in Q4 [3] - The company has actively reduced the pace of expansion, with total assets reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, a 5.0% YoY increase, and a cautious approach to credit card and consumer loan issuance [3] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 30% in 2023, making the dividend yield attractive [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 156.5 billion yuan, 163.1 billion yuan, and 175.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 47.2 billion yuan, 50.3 billion yuan, and 55.5 billion yuan [3][6] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.24 yuan, 2.40 yuan, and 2.67 yuan for 2024-2026 [3][6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 12.1% in 2023 to 11.3% in 2024, before recovering slightly to 11.5% in 2026 [3][6]