发电量稳步增长,新增电站收益率有望提升
XINYI ENERGYXINYI ENERGY(HK:03868)2024-03-14 16:00

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.46, indicating a potential upside of 25.86% from the closing price of HKD 1.16 on March 12, 2024 [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.517 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 993 million, up 2.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by the contribution from solar power projects acquired in the past two years, which saw a 10.9% increase in electricity production [2]. - The company has a sufficient reserve of projects for acquisition, and the return on investment for new solar power projects is expected to improve due to a significant drop in photovoltaic module prices since Q2 2023 [2]. - The company received approximately HKD 527 million in renewable energy subsidies in 2023, a decline of about 75% from the previous year, with outstanding receivables for subsidies amounting to HKD 3.753 billion by the end of 2023 [2]. - The company’s financing costs are expected to improve as the borrowing structure is optimized and the U.S. dollar enters a potential rate-cutting cycle [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from HKD 2.517 billion in 2023 to HKD 3.481 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.81% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 993 million in 2023 to HKD 1.566 billion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 11.12% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.13 in 2023 to HKD 0.19 by 2026 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 8.05 in 2024 to 6.17 in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3].