Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Beijing UBOX Online Technology with a "Buy" rating [2] Core Investment Thesis - Beijing UBOX is a leading operator of vending machines in China, with a network of 61,888 UBOX vending machine locations across 157 cities and 28 provinces as of June 30, 2023 [3] - The company's revenue for 2020-2022 was RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, with a CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2022 [3] - The penetration rate of vending machines in China is expected to increase from 8.8% in 2022 to 15.6% in 2027, with the retail market size projected to grow from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, a five-year CAGR of 20.7% [3] - The company is expanding rapidly in high-tier cities, with the number of machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities expected to increase to 27,000/29,000/28,000 respectively by the end of 2024 [3] - Revenue for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB27.6/40.9/49.9bn, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB-1.5/0.3/1.8bn [3] Financial Forecasts & Valuation - Revenue for 2023-2025 is projected to be RMB2,761.85/4,090.24/4,994.10mn, with YoY growth of 9.63%/48.10%/22.10% [3] - Net profit for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB-150.82/26.15/184.19mn, with YoY growth of 46.99%/117.33%/604.47% [3] - EPS for 2023-2025 is expected to be RMB-0.19/0.03/0.24 [3] - P/E ratios for 2023-2025 are projected at -68.44/394.80/56.04 [3] Market Data & Company Overview - The company's closing price as of the report date is HKD14.60, with a 52-week range of HKD11.84-22.80 [5] - Market capitalization is HKD11,385.59mn, with a P/B ratio of 9.48 [5] - The company has a total of 61,888 vending machine locations, with 87.3% concentrated in first-tier, new first-tier, and second-tier cities [3] - The company's revenue for 2020-2022 was RMB19.0/26.8/25.2bn, with significant fluctuations due to the pandemic and changes in consumer demand [3] Industry Analysis - The vending machine market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the retail market size projected to increase from RMB289bn in 2022 to RMB739bn in 2027, a five-year CAGR of 20.7% [3] - The market is currently fragmented, with the top five participants holding a 17.0% market share based on total commodity turnover in 2022 [3] - Leading companies are expected to achieve growth surpassing the industry through mergers and acquisitions [3] Business Model & Expansion Strategy - The company operates a comprehensive service platform for unmanned retail, leveraging digitalization and operational capabilities to create value for various participants [3] - The company is focusing on expanding in high-tier cities, with plans to increase the number of machines in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities to 27,000/29,000/28,000 by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is also targeting third-tier and below cities through cooperation with operators and platform empowerment, with the number of machines expected to increase from 7,881 in June 2023 to 16,000 by the end of 2024 [3]
乘无人零售之风，自动售货机龙头起航