证券行业年2024度策略：政策与改革双轮驱动，券商转型提速加力

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry in 2023 faced dual pressures from domestic and international factors, leading to an overall downward trend in the A-share market. By Q3 2023, 44 listed securities firms achieved total operating income of CNY 384 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 110.3 billion, up 6.59% year-on-year. However, brokerage, asset management, investment banking, and credit businesses faced significant pressure, with revenues declining by 12.45%, 8.44%, 18.34%, and 22.22% respectively [3][14][16] - The self-operated business has become a key driver for performance improvement, with four listed firms achieving self-operated income of CNY 104 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.20% [3][14][16] - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to accelerate their transformation towards higher value-added wealth management models due to the high homogeneity and volatility of traditional channel businesses [3][14] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises and merger and acquisition themes, as well as large securities firms with strong comprehensive capabilities and those with significant self-operated growth potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The securities sector experienced wide fluctuations in 2023, with the broker index increasing by 3.06% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.81 percentage points [5][11] - The market was driven by factors such as economic recovery expectations and policy support, but faced challenges as the market digested these benefits [6][8] Business Performance - The light asset business faced significant pressure, with revenues from brokerage, investment banking, and asset management declining due to reduced market activity and financing slowdowns. The self-operated business, however, showed strong growth [14][16][18] - The report highlights that the self-operated business's contribution to overall performance is increasing, with firms showing a strong willingness to expand their balance sheets and leverage [3][14][16] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises and firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, as well as large firms with strong performance and growth potential in self-operated businesses [3][20][49] - The anticipated performance of securities firms in 2023 is expected to be a catalyst for market movements, with several firms projected to exceed profit expectations [3][54]