CXO行业数据跟踪：宏观风险因素有待落地，估值体系重塑在即

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the CXO industry, suggesting a potential valuation recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve and the market anticipates a shift in the valuation framework [2][5]. Core Insights - The CXO industry is expected to benefit from a favorable investment environment as the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in Q2, which may enhance liquidity and create valuation recovery opportunities in the innovative drug supply chain [2][4]. - The report highlights a steady growth in global pharmaceutical R&D investment, projecting a 2.6% CAGR from 2021 to 2028, indicating sustained demand for CXO services [11][12]. - The report notes that the valuation of major CXO companies has returned to historical lows, presenting a high value for investment [5][7]. Summary by Sections Macro Dimension - The Federal Reserve's high interest rates are expected to stabilize, with predictions of a rate cut in Q2, which could improve the investment climate for the pharmaceutical sector [2][4]. - The CXO sector has seen a significant decline in valuations, with many companies trading below their historical averages, indicating potential for recovery [7][5]. Industry Dimension - Global pharmaceutical R&D investment is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted increase from $144 billion in 2014 to $238 billion in 2021, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [11]. - The report notes that the number of new INDs and NDAs in China has shown robust growth, with 1,381 new INDs in 2023, marking a 12% increase [13]. Company Dimension - Major CXO companies have substantial backlogs of orders, particularly in small molecule CDMO services, which have supported strong revenue growth in recent years [19][25]. - The report identifies key players in the CXO space, including WuXi AppTec and Kelun Pharmaceutical, which have significant order volumes and are well-positioned for future growth [23][24]. Future Outlook - Short-term prospects for the CXO industry remain strong, driven by ongoing demand for COVID-related small molecule CDMO orders, while medium-term growth is expected from the commercialization of peptide drugs [3][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology in drug development and the potential for emerging businesses in cell and gene therapy to drive future growth [3][15].