PDH(600048) 中银证券·2024-03-14 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.77 [1] - The sector rating is Outperform [1] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in sales, ranking first in the industry despite sales pressure [3] - The company's financing channels remain smooth, with significant advantages in funding and land acquisition [3] - The company's 2023 revenue grew steadily, but profits declined due to lower gross margins and asset impairment [3] - The company's 2023-2025 shareholder return plan includes a cash dividend ratio of no less than 40% of net profit [3] Sales Performance - In February 2024, the company achieved sales of RMB 15.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 54.4%, and sales area of 948k sqm, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4% [3] - The average selling price in February 2024 was RMB 16,832 per sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved sales of RMB 422.24 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and sales area of 23.68 million sqm, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [3] Land Acquisition - In February 2024, the company acquired 3 plots in second-tier cities with a total construction area of 499k sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a total investment of RMB 3.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 67.8% [3] - The land acquisition intensity (land acquisition amount/sales amount) was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 percentage points [3] - For the full year 2023, the company acquired 103 plots with a total construction area of 10.75 million sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and a total investment of RMB 163.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [3] Financial Performance - The company's 2023 revenue was RMB 347.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 12.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% [3] - The company's 2023-2025 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 346.8 billion, RMB 365.7 billion, and RMB 398.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 6%, and 9%, respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023-2025 is forecasted to be RMB 12.0 billion, RMB 12.4 billion, and RMB 13.3 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -34%, 3%, and 7%, respectively [4] Financing and Share Repurchase - In January-February 2024, the company successfully issued public market bonds totaling RMB 10.98 billion, with an average coupon rate of 2.2% [3] - The company completed a share repurchase of 105 million shares, accounting for 0.88% of the total shares, with a total repurchase amount of RMB 1.0 billion [3] - The company's major shareholder, Poly Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 250-500 million, and has already increased its stake by 26.78 million shares, accounting for 0.22% of the total shares [3] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.7x, 9.4x, and 8.8x for 2023-2025, respectively [4] - The PB ratio is 0.6x, 0.6x, and 0.5x for 2023-2025, respectively [5]