锡行业深度报告：供应存瓶颈，需求有潜力

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Yunnan Tin Company (锡业股份) [2] Core Views - Tin prices have rebounded from a low of 160,000 yuan/ton in November 2022 to a range of 210,000-220,000 yuan/ton, driven by supply constraints and semiconductor industry inventory adjustments [4] - Global tin supply is constrained by limited new capacity, with only 0.7/1.1/0.7 million tons of new capacity expected in 2023-2025, primarily from Congo (DRC) and Australia [4] - Tin demand is expected to grow, driven by semiconductor recovery and new energy applications, with global tin demand projected at 39.1/40.0/41.2 million tons for 2023-2025 [5] - The tin market is expected to remain tight, with a supply-demand gap of 2.1/2.5/2.7 million tons in 2023-2025, supporting higher tin prices in the medium term [6] Supply Analysis - Global tin production is stable at 26-32 million tons annually, with limited new capacity due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital investment [4] - China's tin production is declining, with 2023 output at 6.8 million tons, down 4.23% YoY, due to resource depletion and stricter environmental regulations [29] - Myanmar, a major tin supplier to China, has seen production disruptions due to mining bans and policy changes, impacting global supply [38][39] - Tin mining costs are rising, with the 75th percentile global tin mining cost increasing from $19,783/ton in 2020 to$22,634/ton in 2022, expected to reach $31,408/ton by 2030 [52] Demand Analysis - Tin demand is primarily driven by solder applications, accounting for 50% of global tin consumption, with semiconductors being the largest end-use sector [61] - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, with AI and consumer electronics driving demand for tin solder [67] - New energy applications, such as photovoltaic solder and electric vehicles, are expected to contribute significantly to tin demand growth, with photovoltaic tin usage projected at 3.2/4.0/5.0 million tons for 2023-2025 [5] Company Analysis - Yunnan Tin Company (锡业股份) is the global leader in tin production, with 2023 output of 80,100 tons, up 3.9% YoY [46] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (华锡有色) and Xingye Yintin (兴业银锡) are also key players in the tin industry, with potential for growth through resource injections and project expansions [6][32]