Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for JD Logistics (02618.HK) [1][3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved profitability in 2023, with a total revenue of 166.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.2 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in 2022. Adjusted net profit reached 27.6 billion yuan, up 218.8% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.7%, an increase of 1 percentage point [1][9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, JD Logistics reported a gross margin of 7.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio was 7.2%, down 0.3 percentage points. Labor costs accounted for 33.2% of revenue, up 0.7 percentage points, while outsourcing costs decreased to 36.2%, down 1.4 percentage points [1][7][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers reached 116.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, accounting for 70% of total revenue. The integrated supply chain revenue from external customers was 31.4 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year, with the average revenue per customer increasing to 420,363 yuan, a rise of 15.2% [1][7][10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to further develop in areas such as the JD ecosystem, digitalization, collaboration with Deppon, and overseas expansion. The integration with Deppon is expected to enhance logistics resources and operational capabilities, while overseas logistics services are anticipated to grow rapidly [1][9][10]. Investment Projections - The report conservatively adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 970 million yuan and 1.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at 1.65 billion yuan. The target market capitalization for 2023 is approximately 77.4 billion HKD, corresponding to a target price of 11.7 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 45% [1][9][10].
2023年报点评：年成功扭亏为盈，内外部均高质量增长，持续推荐