科技行业2024年投资策略：AI鼎新，与时偕行

Investment Rating - The report rates the technology industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The A-share technology sector is expected to continue reflecting the global technology wave in 2024, with sustained trading enthusiasm in the TMT sector and significant excess returns from artificial intelligence (AI) investments. The current technology investment logic is less correlated with overall economic performance and more focused on breakthroughs in technological innovation and contributions to the tech wave [2][14] - The AI cycle is at its peak, with innovations in silicon photonics, HBM storage, GPU computing power, advanced packaging, and domestic process breakthroughs maintaining a high level of demand for computing power. AI is becoming the foundation for smart hardware, leading to market opportunities for AI-enabled devices [2][27] - Huawei is expected to continue its strong performance in 2024, driving innovation across terminals, cloud services, networks, chips, and software, while also countering U.S. technology sanctions [2][20] - The semiconductor sector is recovering, with domestic wafer capacity expected to expand as inventory clears and demand rebounds, supported by government incentives [2][4] Summary by Sections AI Sector - The AI computing power market is set to grow rapidly, with the demand for high-performance AI servers expected to increase significantly. The global AI hardware market is projected to grow from $19.5 billion in 2022 to $34.7 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% [42][46] - The integration of silicon photonics technology is expected to reshape high-speed data transmission, with the 800G optical module market anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by the increasing demand for AI training models [72][81] Huawei - Huawei is positioned as a leader in technology innovation, with expectations of significant advancements in its HarmonyOS, AI ecosystem, and 5.5G commercial deployment in 2024 [3][32] - The company is focusing on high-end smartphones, smart automotive solutions, and digital energy, with a projected revenue of over 700 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 9% growth from 2022 [20][23] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with storage demand rebounding and a projected 44.8% year-on-year increase in the storage market size in 2024, driving overall IC market growth by 15.5% [27][32] - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of localization and self-sufficiency, with significant opportunities arising from the need for domestic alternatives in the face of U.S. sanctions [2][65]