Innovita Biological Technology (SH:688253) Haitong Securities·2024-03-16 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [9]. Core Insights - The company has significant growth potential in respiratory pathogen detection, with a target population of 400 million susceptible individuals, including infants, children, and the elderly. The market for diagnostic differentiation is expected to expand as patient and physician awareness increases [6][10]. - The company has experienced rapid growth since 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.4% in revenue from 2019 to 2023, reaching an estimated revenue of 478 million yuan in 2023. The net profit for the same period has a CAGR of 59.4%, with an expected net profit of 175 million yuan in 2023 [10][46]. - The company is a leader in the domestic respiratory pathogen detection market, having developed a comprehensive product line since 2011, with over 15 types of respiratory pathogens covered and a significant number of product registrations both domestically and internationally [10][52]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 36.00 yuan, with a 52-week price fluctuation between 19.12 and 38.25 yuan. The total market capitalization is approximately 4.898 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 478 million yuan in 2023 to 625 million yuan in 2024, and further to 828 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.7% and 32.4% respectively. The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 58.9% to 59.1% during this period [7][62]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.90 yuan in 2024 and 2.52 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [11][62]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is expanding into international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has established a headquarters in Singapore. The demand for quality POCT products in respiratory pathogen detection is growing rapidly in these regions [11]. - The company has a diverse product matrix, including various rapid detection kits for respiratory pathogens, and is also expanding into other diagnostic areas such as digestive health and hepatitis [25][44]. Industry Context - The respiratory pathogen detection market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased awareness and demand for rapid testing solutions post-COVID-19. The global respiratory disease testing market is projected to grow from 5.59 billion USD in 2023 to 6.72 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 3.77% [68]. - The competitive landscape in the respiratory pathogen detection industry is fragmented, with the company holding a market share of approximately 12.4% as of 2019, indicating a strong position among a variety of competitors [70].