Haitong Securities·2024-03-17 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to AIA Group, with a target price of HK$91.38 [4][16][129]. Core Insights - AIA Group's New Business Value (NBV) reached $4.03 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates, with Q4 2023 NBV at $1.01 billion, up 24% year-over-year [15][36][129]. - The NBV margin was reported at 52.6%, down 4.5 percentage points year-over-year, but showed recovery in the second half of 2023 to 54.5% [36][58][129]. - Annualized New Premiums (ANP) hit a record high of $7.65 billion, up 45% year-over-year, with H2 2023 contributing $3.67 billion, a 39.4% increase [36][129]. - The net profit for the year was $3.76 billion, representing a 15% increase year-over-year [36][129]. - The embedded value was $67.4 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while the operating profit from embedded value increased by 33% year-over-year [36][129]. Summary by Sections Channels and Manpower - The agency channel's NBV increased by 23% year-over-year, accounting for 75.7% of total NBV, while the NBV margin decreased by 8.0 percentage points to 65.4% [100][129]. - The partner channel outperformed with a 58% year-over-year increase in NBV, and the bancassurance channel saw a 42% increase [100][129]. Regional Performance - Hong Kong regained its position as the largest contributor to NBV, with an 82% year-over-year increase to $1.43 billion, half of which was contributed by mainland visitors [15][130]. - Mainland China's NBV grew by 20% year-over-year, with a notable 28% growth from February to December [15][130]. - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region continued to show positive growth, with increases of 10%, 7%, and 21% year-over-year [15][130]. - Other regions maintained stable NBV, with a 15% year-over-year increase when excluding Vietnam [15][130]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in the overall NBV margin to 52.6%, with a recovery in the second half of 2023 [58][129]. - The average credit rating of the fixed income investment portfolio improved from A- in 2022 to A in 2023 [37][129]. - The report projects continued growth in 2024, supported by the development of new branches in Mainland China and strong growth in the ASEAN region [16][129].