Weathering a challenging FY24

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$464 million, slightly above estimates, while FY23 revenue declined by 4% YoY to US$1.76 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP operating income for 4Q23 decreased by 4% YoY to US$146 million, but was 7% ahead of consensus due to stringent control over product development expenses [2]. - The company plans to increase investment in content and user acquisition to drive top-line growth in 2024, with expected revenue flat YoY at US$1.77 billion [2]. - The target price has been lowered to US$18.80 from US$23.50, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24, total revenue is projected at US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at US$451 million, down 16-19% from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 25.5% in FY24E, reflecting increased investments [2][11]. - Advertising revenue in 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$404 million, with specific verticals like automobiles and online games showing strong performance [2]. User Engagement and Community Development - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) increased by 2% YoY to 598 million as of December 2023 [2]. - Weibo is focusing on enhancing user stickiness through investments in key content verticals and optimizing social products [2]. Shareholder Returns - Weibo announced a special cash dividend of US$0.82 per share, translating to an approximate 8% dividend yield, aimed at supporting valuation recovery [2].