美联储3月议息会议前瞻：美联储资产负债表政策或迎来调整窗口

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in March, with a low probability of rate cuts due to resilient inflation[4][11][44] - The U.S. inflation rate for February was 3.2% year-on-year, slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[21][44] - The core CPI for February increased by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest rise in eight months, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts[44] Market and Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy showed unexpected strength in Q4 2023, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.2%, down from 4.9% in Q3[17] - The yield curve is expected to steepen due to potential adjustments in the Fed's balance sheet policy, which may lead to tighter macro liquidity conditions[5][8][34] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds is becoming increasingly short-term, reflecting pressures on refinancing and fiscal policy[26][50][51] Risks and Challenges - Despite a generally loose financial condition, liquidity demand remains high, with BTFP loans reaching $167.5 billion, indicating ongoing liquidity pressures[87] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges, with the ISM manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory at 47.8, while non-manufacturing PMI is relatively strong at 52.6[42] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a divergence between financial conditions and real economic performance, raising concerns about future growth prospects[18][41]