大类资产每周观察

Market Overview - The U.S. January CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, extinguishing market optimism for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields to new highs[20] - Domestic economic recovery remains sluggish, with high-frequency sales of new and second-hand homes showing seasonal weakness, and manufacturing capacity utilization declining seasonally[20] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a "震荡筑底" (oscillating bottom) for major asset classes, with a focus on risk assets like stocks and a cautious approach towards bonds[6] - Recommendations include shorting construction-related industrial products and focusing on long positions in non-ferrous metals and chemicals during market corrections[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include U.S. inflation and employment disturbances, slower-than-expected recovery of the domestic real economy, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[5] Performance Metrics - The stock market performance over the past week showed the Shenzhen Component Index up by 9.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.97%[7] - The risk premium for equities over bonds recorded at 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a decrease in foreign investment attractiveness[27] Monetary Supply Analysis - The central bank's reverse repos totaled 13,160 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 4,170 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal tightening of monetary supply[11] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) saw a net injection of 2,160 billion yuan, but overall monetary supply is returning to a neutral stance[11] Economic Indicators - The average daily subway ridership in 28 major cities was 43.92 million, down 38.5% year-on-year, reflecting a significant drop in service sector activity[17] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with a 59.4% week-on-week decline in second-hand home sales during the Spring Festival period[34] Commodity Market Insights - Commodity prices are expected to show mixed performance, with industrial products likely to oscillate due to U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations and domestic economic recovery post-Spring Festival[77] - Agricultural products are anticipated to continue a bottoming-out trend, driven by weak demand[77]