Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of -31.95% in the cumulative sales area of commercial housing across 26 cities from January 1 to March 17, 2024 [3][12]. - The report notes that first-tier cities are experiencing a significant drop in both new and second-hand home sales, with second-hand home sales in 13 cities down by -14.41% year-to-date [3][20]. - Policy changes, such as the lifting of second-hand housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and adjustments to housing fund loan requirements in Tianjin, are expected to impact market dynamics positively [24][25]. Market Performance - The A-share real estate index (801180.SL) increased by 4.47% during the week of March 11-15, 2024, outperforming the broader market [3][6]. - The H-share real estate index (HSPDM.HK) also saw a rise of 4.65% during the same period [10]. Sales Data - New home sales in first-tier cities showed a year-on-year decline of -32.14% for the same period, with a monthly decline of -42.29% in March [3][12]. - Second-hand home sales in first-tier cities experienced a year-to-date decline of -18.82%, with a monthly decline of -36.89% in March [20][22]. Industry News - Recent policy announcements include the Shenzhen government's new measures for affordable housing and the optimization of second-hand housing purchase policies in Hangzhou, which are expected to stimulate market activity [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality central state-owned enterprises in first and second-tier cities, which are likely to benefit from ongoing policy support and urban renewal projects [4][25].
房地产行业报告:销售持续走弱,杭州放开二手房限购
Dongxing Securities·2024-03-17 16:00