Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fosun Tourism Culture (1992) is "Accumulate" with a target price of HKD 8.77, reflecting a 4% decrease from previous estimates [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in overseas high-end demand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where price increases are more pronounced than volume growth. The real estate sales business has seen a substantial decline, allowing the tourism operations to focus resources and accelerate profit recovery [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 17.15 billion in 2023, representing a 24.5% increase year-on-year. Notably, ClubMed contributed CNY 14.16 billion (+22.3%), while Sanya Atlantis saw a remarkable growth of 96.3% to CNY 1.76 billion [3]. - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2024 and 2025, with a new forecast for 2026 net profit at CNY 430 million, reflecting a 28% decrease from previous estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit of CNY 5.60 billion, with a gross margin of 32.6%, which is an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to 2019. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 307 million, with a margin of 1.8%, down 1.7 percentage points from 2019 [3][7]. - Non-GAAP EBITDA reached CNY 3.73 billion, recovering to 100% of 2019 levels, while adjusted net profit was CNY 395 million, with a margin of 2.3% [3]. Market Recovery - The recovery in overseas markets is particularly strong, with ClubMed's revenue in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East returning to 111% of 2019 levels, and the Americas at 163%. The Asia-Pacific region has also shown recovery, reaching 102% of 2019 levels [3]. - Price increases in the Asia-Pacific region are more significant compared to other regions, with a 25.47% increase in average customer spending [3]. Business Structure Optimization - The report notes a structural optimization in the business, with ClubMed and Sanya Atlantis accounting for 92.8% of total revenue, while the revenue from real estate sales has significantly decreased [3]. - The Taicang project is expected to gradually reduce losses as operations mature [3].
2023年业绩点评：结构性优化，海外高端需求继续回暖