Minsheng Securities·2024-03-18 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company has achieved two significant oil discoveries in 2024, indicating strong growth potential in energy reserves [6]. - The company’s production targets for 2024-2026 are set at 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.27%-7.13% from 2023 to 2026 [6]. - The report anticipates a positive performance in Q1 2024, driven by effective cost control and strong production [6]. - The company is expected to have net profits of 126.01 billion, 137.67 billion, and 147.25 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 2.65, 2.89, and 3.10 yuan [6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections are as follows: 422.23 billion yuan in 2022, 395.29 billion yuan in 2023 (a decrease of 6.4%), 420.93 billion yuan in 2024 (an increase of 6.5%), and 449.55 billion yuan in 2025 (an increase of 6.8%) [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 141.70 billion yuan in 2022, 126.01 billion yuan in 2023 (a decrease of 11.1%), 137.67 billion yuan in 2024 (an increase of 9.3%), and 147.25 billion yuan in 2025 (an increase of 7.0%) [3][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9 for 2022, 11 for 2023, 10 for 2024, and 9 for 2025 [3][5]. Production and Operational Highlights - The company has successfully increased daily oil production to over 10,000 tons, setting a historical record [6]. - The company’s new discoveries and production upgrades are expected to provide solid support for future output increases [6]. - The report highlights the company’s strong cost control measures and operational efficiency, which are crucial for maintaining profitability amid fluctuating oil prices [6].