Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-18 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 8.93 CNY [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 copper and cobalt production and sales have accelerated, and the sale of the Australian NPM copper-gold mine asset has enhanced profits, leading to an earnings release that exceeded expectations for 2023. The company is expected to continue growing its copper and cobalt production in 2024, with promising earnings ahead [4]. - The report revises the company's EPS forecasts for 2023-2025 to 0.38, 0.50, and 0.55 CNY respectively, up from the previous estimates of 0.35, 0.48, and 0.51 CNY, reflecting the benefits from the NPM asset sale and improved sales confirmation rhythm and product prices in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. - The company achieved preliminary revenue of 186.27 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.25 billion CNY, up 35% year-on-year. Q4 revenue reached 54.59 billion CNY, a 35% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 5.81 billion CNY, up 663% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 186.27 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The operating profit (EBIT) is expected to be 15.85 billion CNY, reflecting a 26% increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 8.25 billion CNY, a 36% increase year-on-year [5]. - The EPS for 2023 is estimated at 0.38 CNY, with projections of 0.50 CNY for 2024 and 0.55 CNY for 2025 [5][11]. Production and Sales - The company sold 420,000 tons of copper and 56,000 tons of cobalt in 2023, representing year-on-year increases of 51% and 174% respectively. Q4 production was 152,000 tons of copper and 18,000 tons of cobalt, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 38% and 2% [4][5]. - The company plans to increase copper and cobalt production to 520,000-570,000 tons and 60,000-70,000 tons respectively in 2024, with significant capacity increases expected [4]. Market Outlook - The report highlights an optimistic outlook for copper prices due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts in the US and improved demand forecasts, suggesting that copper prices are likely to remain high [4].