投资价值分析报告：引入加盟特许经营模式，公司门店规模有望进一步提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended (First Time)" investment rating to the company [6][45]. Core Insights - The hot pot industry in China is expected to exceed 550 billion yuan in market size by 2024, driven by strong social attributes and diverse ingredients [2][3]. - Haidilao has a high brand recognition and has improved table turnover rates through innovative products and services, with a current total of 1,360 restaurants in mainland China [3][22]. - The introduction of a franchise model is anticipated to further enhance the company's store expansion [4][29]. Company Performance Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 414.17 billion yuan, 463.57 billion yuan, and 518.86 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 19.22%, 11.93%, and 11.93% [5][37]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.80 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.04 yuan for the same years [5][37]. Business Model and Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's operational philosophy emphasizes "locking in management" and "locking in benefits," which enhances employee motivation and customer service [22][26]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and management system, allowing for standardized and scalable growth [32][26]. - The franchise model will provide uniform training, supply chain systems, and management experience to franchisees, ensuring food safety and customer experience [29][4]. Market Position and Expansion Potential - The hot pot industry has a low chain rate of 23%, indicating significant room for expansion, especially in lower-tier cities where Haidilao has fewer outlets compared to competitors [16][26]. - The company has a strong presence in second-tier and above cities, with potential for growth in third-tier and below cities [18][4]. Financial Metrics - As of March 18, 2024, the company's closing price was 17.30 HKD, with a market capitalization of 964.3 billion HKD and a P/E ratio of 22.36 [7][5]. - The report estimates a target price of 23.20 HKD per share within six months, indicating a potential upside of 22.03% from the current price [44][45].