China National Gold (SH:600916) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-18 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Gold (600916) with a target price of 15.36, unchanged from the previous rating [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the sales from the New Year exhibition are expected to exceed expectations for the first quarter, supported by the company's optimized franchise policies and ongoing store expansion efforts [2][6]. - The company has seen a net increase of 206 stores in 2023, with plans for further expansion, indicating a recovery phase for store openings [2][6]. - The introduction of new products at the exhibition is anticipated to drive sales, with a significant increase in the volume of exclusive products sold [2][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the New Year exhibition on sales, projecting strong performance in the first quarter [2][6]. - The company's franchise policy has been optimized to enhance support for service centers and franchisees, which is expected to restore confidence in the distribution channels [2][6]. - The report notes that the company is actively increasing its store count, with a total of 206 new stores added in 2023, including 4 direct-operated and 202 franchise stores [2][6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 56,717 million in 2023 to 66,384 million in 2024, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,050 million in 2023 to 1,313 million in 2024, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [2][6]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 0.46 in 2023 to 0.63 in 2024, showcasing the company's improving profitability [2][6]. Market Position - China Gold is positioned as a leading player in the gold jewelry retail sector, benefiting from its strong brand recognition and market presence [2][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through continuous product innovation and strategic store expansions [2][6]. - The report highlights the company's focus on enhancing supply chain management and operational efficiency to support its growth strategy [2][6].