YDC(605555) 申万宏源·2024-03-19 16:00Investment Rating and Valuation - The report assigns an investment rating to the company, highlighting concerns about the automotive parts business and potential impacts on sales prices However, it argues that these effects are already reflected in the orders due to price agreements made at the end of the previous year [14] - The report emphasizes that the overseas inventory cycle has ended, leading to a full recovery in export business The company's product quality, core motor technology, and cost advantages are expected to further increase its supply share in the small home appliance sector [14] Core Business and Revenue Growth - The company's core business, vacuum cleaner manufacturing, has shown steady growth, with revenue expected to reach 16 26/17 89/19 67 billion yuan in 2023-2025, representing year-on-year growth of 18%/10%/10% [9] - The small home appliance business is projected to achieve revenue of 8 03/12 82/16 99 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 112%/60%/33% The company has secured new clients like Shark, which is expected to drive rapid growth in products such as hair dryers and hair care devices [9] - The EPS motor business is forecasted to generate revenue of 2 20/4 05/7 02 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 197%/84%/73% The company has secured orders exceeding 23 billion yuan for 2023-2026, with an additional 17 6 billion yuan in new orders, indicating strong future growth potential [9] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's overseas markets contribute the majority of its revenue, while domestic revenue has been declining [3] - The global personal care small appliance market is expected to grow steadily, with the hair care segment projected to reach 8 19 billion USD by 2030, driven by increased consumer demand for home care products during the pandemic [30] - The EPS motor market is benefiting from the rise of new energy vehicles and domestic substitution trends, with the market size expected to reach 57 1 billion yuan by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 5 7% from 2022-2025 [58] Strategic Expansion and Diversification - The company has diversified its business from small home appliances to automotive parts, leveraging its motor technology expertise It has secured significant orders in the EPS motor sector, with 28 projects already in place and orders exceeding 23 billion yuan for 2023-2026 [148] - The company has expanded its production capacity in Southeast Asia, with a new facility in Vietnam capable of producing 3 8 million vacuum cleaners annually This move aims to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness in the global market [48] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's profitability has stabilized and rebounded since 2022, driven by easing cost pressures and the gradual scaling of high-margin automotive motor business [2] - The report projects that the company will achieve revenue of 27 64/35 96/44 96 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth of 42 6%/30 1%/25 0% Net profit is expected to reach 3 44/3 87/4 42 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 15 2%/12 6%/14 1% [150]