BCHT(SH:688276) Guotou Securities·2024-03-19 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a 6-month target price of 71.89 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.825 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 70.30%, and a net profit of 501 million CNY, up 175.98% [2][7]. - The newly launched varicella vaccine has contributed significantly to revenue, with sales of 663,500 doses generating approximately 883 million CNY, accounting for about 48.4% of total revenue [2][7]. - The company has made progress in its research pipeline, with 16 projects underway, including a liquid nasal flu vaccine nearing market approval and several other vaccines in various stages of clinical trials [7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 581 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 182.65%, and a net profit of 170 million CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [2][7]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 90.23%, an increase of 3.04 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 27.46%, up 10.51 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The company’s R&D expenses were approximately 199 million CNY, representing 10.89% of total revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [7][8]. Market Expansion - The varicella vaccine has a low penetration rate of 0.4% among the population aged 40 and above, indicating significant market potential for future growth [2][7]. - The company is actively expanding its product promotion channels and has initiated export activities for its varicella vaccine, including sales to Ghana and a partnership with Russia [3][7]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 44.6%, 22.5%, and 14.7% for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with net profit growth expected at 58.3%, 33.2%, and 20.4% during the same period [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive position through ongoing research and development efforts, with several products expected to enter the market in the coming years [7][8].