AKESO(HK:09926)2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926.HK) with a target price of HKD 65, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price of HKD 49.95 [1][2][12]. Core Insights - 康方生物's 2023 revenue and net profit are broadly in line with expectations, with a significant growth in 开坦尼, projected to continue with a revenue growth rate of over 20% in 2024. The company anticipates a moderate increase in R&D expenses for 2024 [1][2]. - Key catalysts for the company include the mid-term analysis results of the head-to-head trials of 依沃西 and K药, expected to be announced by the end of Q2 2024, with a high probability of success [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, 康方生物 reported a revenue of RMB 45.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 440%, with product sales revenue rising by 48% to RMB 16.3 billion. The gross margin for product sales improved by 0.3 percentage points to 91.8% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 19.4 billion, aligning with expectations. Excluding technology licensing and collaboration income, the net loss narrowed by 45% to RMB 7.9 billion [2][8]. - For 2024, the revenue forecast is RMB 3.27 billion, reflecting a decrease of 27.8% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2025 with a projected increase of 27.8% [8][9]. R&D and Future Prospects - R&D expenses for 2023 were RMB 1.25 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with plans for a moderate increase in 2024 while maintaining high efficiency [2][9]. - The company has several upcoming catalysts, including the expected approval of three new drugs in 2024 and important phase III clinical trial results [2][9].