QFIN(US:QFIN)2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US with a target price of $23.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of $18.47 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing more on growth quality and shareholder returns in 2024, with a net profit of 4.285 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1]. - The loan facilitation amount for 2023 grew by 15.4% year-on-year, aligning with the company's guidance, while the annualized net take rate for Q4 was 3.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The proportion of light assets has increased and is expected to continue rising in 2024 due to risk management considerations [1]. - Asset quality remains under pressure, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 2.35% in Q4, but there are signs of improvement since December [1]. - The company has tightened credit standards and is leveraging AI technology to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance operational efficiency [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a net profit of 4.285 billion RMB, with a projected net profit for Q1 2024 of 11.5-12.0 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 17-22% [1][2]. - Revenue for 2023 was 16.290 billion RMB, with a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but expected to grow by 7.1% in 2024 [4][6]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 4.631 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4][6]. - The company plans to repurchase $350 million worth of shares over the next 12 months, with dividends and buybacks expected to exceed 70% of net profit in 2024 [2]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain above 20% over the next three years [2]. - The price-to-book ratio for 2024 is estimated at 1.2 times [2]. - The dividend yield is expected to be around 5.5% for 2023, increasing to 7.1% in 2024 [4][6].