今日早参 2026 年 3 月 19 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：3 月 FOMC：联储对降息更加谨慎 概览：北京时间 3 月 19 日（周四）凌晨美联储公布 3 月议息会议决定，政 策利率维持在 3.5-3.75%，点阵图维持 2026-27 年各降息 1 次的指引，但联 储上调增长通胀预测以及鲍威尔表态均显示，联储对降息变得更加谨慎。 风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走弱，中东冲突持续性与烈度超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-03-19 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 固定收益：在防御中挖掘信用债结构性机会 通胀担忧上行+政策观察期+供给潜在扰动，3-4 月债市相比 1-2 月份胜率不 高、赔率降低，但资金面仍平稳、外部扰动短空长多，债市调整空间有限。 机构行为方面，分红险增速放缓+心态谨慎，保险 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan facilitation and origination volume decreased by 21.8% year-over-year to RMB 70.3 billion in Q4 2025, while full-year volume reached approximately RMB 327.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.6% [6][7] - Non-GAAP net income in Q4 decreased by 45.7% year-over-year to RMB 1.07 billion, while full-year non-GAAP net income declined by 1% year-over-year to RMB 6.35 billion [6][7] - Non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis decreased by 39.8% year-over-year to RMB 8.23 in Q4, but increased by 10.4% year-over-year to RMB 46.8 for the full year [6][7] - Total net revenue for Q4 was RMB 4.09 billion, down from RMB 5.21 billion in Q3 and RMB 4.48 billion a year ago [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.43 billion in Q4, down from RMB 3.87 billion in Q3 and RMB 2.89 billion a year ago, primarily due to lower off-balance sheet loans [21][22] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 660 million in Q4, compared to RMB 1.34 billion in Q3 and RMB 1.59 billion a year ago, driven by lower ICE contributions [22] - The average IRR of loans originated and/or facilitated declined by about 150 basis points compared to the prior quarter [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The C-M2 ratio, representing the outstanding delinquency rate after 30-day collection, increased to 0.97% in Q4, the highest since COVID in 2020 [8][24] - The 90-day delinquency rate was 2.71% in Q4, up from 2.09% in Q3, while the day-1 delinquency rate was 6.1% in Q4 compared to 5.5% in Q3 [23][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on compliance and risk management as core strategies in response to regulatory changes, aiming for a healthier market environment [5][6] - The strategy includes enhancing user acquisition of high-quality borrowers and optimizing credit approval frameworks to improve asset quality [10][14] - The company plans to expand into international markets, including Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, to drive long-term growth [18][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the consumer finance industry is undergoing a systemic restructuring, which has tightened market liquidity and suppressed credit demand [4][5] - Despite the challenging environment, management expects to see gradual improvements in risk metrics and operational efficiency [11][31] - For Q1 2026, the company expects non-GAAP net income to be between RMB 900 million and RMB 950 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 51% to 53% [31] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $200 million in dividends and $680 million via share repurchases in 2025, representing 98% of its 2024 GAAP net income [19][37] - Total ABS issuance grew 40.8% year-over-year to RMB 21.4 billion, with a reduction in average issuance costs by 72 basis points [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the medium to long-term outlook for loan pricing and sustainable net take rates? - Management indicated that regulatory efforts to reduce borrowing costs will lead to a healthier market, with a focus on high-quality users. Average pricing dropped by 140 basis points in Q4, and they expect further adjustments in 2026 [34][35] Question: How does the company balance dividends and buybacks? - The company has maintained a high payout ratio and intends to continue a progressive dividend policy while being cautious with buybacks due to macro uncertainties [37][39] Question: What is the trend of risk indicators and future outlook? - Management reported improvements in risk metrics, with FPD30 for new loans dropping by 18% QoQ and a stable C-M2 ratio. They will continue to monitor risks closely [44][45] Question: What is the outlook for the ICE business and funding costs? - The ICE business saw a significant decline in referral service fees due to cautious funding partners and a drop in volume. Funding costs are expected to face pressure due to regulatory changes [50][55] Question: What is the company's strategy for overseas market expansion? - The company plans to actively explore multiple overseas markets, having already entered some in 2025, and aims to balance resources between mature and developing markets [59][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan facilitation and origination volume decreased by 21.8% year-over-year to RMB 70.3 billion in Q4 2025, while full-year volume reached approximately RMB 327.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.6% [4][5] - Non-GAAP net income in Q4 decreased by 45.7% year-over-year to RMB 1.07 billion, while full-year non-GAAP net income declined by 1% year-over-year to RMB 6.35 billion [4][5] - Non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis decreased by 39.8% year-over-year to RMB 8.23 in Q4, but increased by 10.4% year-over-year to RMB 46.8 for the full year [4][5][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.43 billion in Q4, down from RMB 3.87 billion in Q3 and RMB 2.89 billion a year ago, while revenue from platform services was RMB 660 million in Q4, down from RMB 1.34 billion in Q3 [19][20] - The average IRR of loans originated and/or facilitated declined by about 150 basis points compared to the prior quarter [20] - The proportion of loan volume from high-quality borrowers rose by six percentage points sequentially in Q4 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The C-M2 ratio, representing the outstanding delinquency rate after thirty days of collection, increased to 0.97% in Q4, the highest recorded since COVID in 2020 [7][22] - The 90-day delinquency rate was 2.71% in Q4 compared to 2.09% in Q3, while the 30-day collection rate was 84.1% in Q4 versus 85.7% in Q3 [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on compliance and risk management as core strategies in response to regulatory changes, aiming for a healthier market environment [3] - The company plans to continue expanding into lower pricing borrower segments while optimizing its customer mix [12] - The international business strategy includes pursuing opportunities in Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to drive long-term growth [17][58] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the consumer finance industry is undergoing a systemic restructuring, which has tightened market liquidity and suppressed credit demand [3] - The company expects ongoing consolidation in the industry to create broader opportunities for leading credit-tech platforms [3] - For Q1 2026, the company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB 900 million and RMB 950 million, representing a year-on-year decline between 51% and 53% [29] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $200 million in dividends and $680 million via share repurchases in 2025, representing 98% of its 2024 GAAP net income [17][35] - Total ABS issuance grew 40.8% year-over-year to RMB 21.4 billion, with average issuance costs declining by 72 basis points from the previous year [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the medium to long-term outlook for loan pricing and sustainable net take rates? - Management indicated that regulatory efforts to reduce funding costs will lead to a healthier market, with a focus on high-quality users and potential for further downward adjustment in average pricing for 2026 [31][33] Question: How does the company balance dividends and buybacks, and is the dividend sustainable? - Management emphasized a commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a progressive dividend policy while being cautious with buybacks due to macro uncertainties [35][36] Question: What has been the trend of risk indicators and the outlook for new loan volume growth? - Management reported improvements in risk indicators, with a focus on high-quality customers, while maintaining a prudent risk strategy amid ongoing industry adjustments [39][56] Question: What is the outlook on the proportion of capital-heavy versus capital-light business models? - Management indicated a shift towards a more capital-light model in 2026, depending on macro conditions, while not setting a fixed target for the mix [43] Question: Can management provide updates on overseas market expansion strategies? - Management confirmed active exploration of multiple markets, including Europe and Latin America, with plans to grow overseas teams and leverage technology for global expansion [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan facilitation and origination volume decreased by 21.8% year-over-year to RMB 70.3 billion in Q4 2025, while full-year volume reached approximately RMB 327.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.6% [4][5] - Non-GAAP net income in Q4 decreased by 45.7% year-over-year to RMB 1.07 billion, while full-year non-GAAP net income declined by 1% year-over-year to RMB 6.35 billion [4][5] - Non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis decreased by 39.8% year-over-year to RMB 8.23 in Q4, but increased by 10.4% year-over-year to RMB 46.8 for the full year [4][5][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.43 billion in Q4, down from RMB 3.87 billion in Q3 and up from RMB 2.89 billion a year ago, while revenue from platform services was RMB 660 million in Q4, down from RMB 1.34 billion in Q3 and RMB 1.59 billion a year ago [17][18] - The average IRR of loans originated and/or facilitated declined by about 150 basis points compared to the prior quarter [18] - The proportion of loan volume from high-quality borrowers rose by six percentage points sequentially in Q4 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The C-M2 ratio, representing the outstanding delinquency rate after thirty days of collection, increased to 0.97% in Q4, the highest recorded since COVID in 2020 [6][20] - The 90-day delinquency rate was 2.71% in Q4 compared to 2.09% in Q3, and the 30-day collection rate was 84.1% in Q4 compared to 85.7% in Q3 [20][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on compliance and risk management as core strategies in response to regulatory changes, aiming for a healthier market environment through ongoing consolidation [3][4] - The company plans to continue diversifying funding channels and optimizing funding structures to ensure stable liquidity at competitive costs amid market volatility [10][11] - The international business expansion is a key strategy, with plans to enter markets in Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia [15][58] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the consumer finance industry is undergoing significant restructuring due to regulatory guidance, which has tightened market liquidity and suppressed credit demand [3] - The company expects to see gradual improvement in risk indicators and plans to maintain a cautious approach in business planning for 2026, focusing on efficiency and cost-cutting [27][56] - Management anticipates that the regulatory environment will continue to evolve, impacting loan pricing and market dynamics [30][31] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $200 million in dividends and $680 million via share repurchases in 2025, representing 98% of its 2024 GAAP net income [15][33] - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 11.3%, lower than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to year-end adjustments [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the medium to long-term outlook for loan pricing and sustainable net take rates? - Management indicated that regulatory efforts to reduce funding costs will lead to a healthier market, with a focus on high-quality users. Average pricing dropped by 140 basis points in Q4, and they expect further adjustments in 2026 [30][31] Question: How does the company balance dividends and buybacks? - Management emphasized that shareholder returns are a top priority, with a progressive dividend policy and a cautious approach to buybacks due to current macro conditions [33][34] Question: What is the trend of risk indicators and the outlook for capital-heavy versus capital-light business models? - Management reported improvements in risk indicators due to proactive measures and indicated a shift towards a more capital-light model in 2026, depending on market conditions [38][42] Question: What is the outlook for new loan volume growth and overseas market expansion? - Management noted that while risk control measures have shown positive results, they will prioritize quality over volume growth. The company plans to accelerate overseas expansion, targeting both mature and developing markets [56][58]

Q4 and Full Year 2025 Result Presentation Strictly Private and Confidential Disclaimer March 2026 This presentation has been prepared by Qfin Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") solely for information purpose. By viewing or accessing the information contained in this material, you hereby acknowledge and agree that no representations, warranties or undertakings, express or implied, are made by the Company or any of its directors, shareholders, employees, agents, affiliates, advisors or representatives as to, and ...

分组1 - Qfin Holdings Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13 per share, and down from $1.82 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -0.44% [1] - The company posted revenues of $585.25 million for the quarter ended December 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.87%, and down from $614.07 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has underperformed, losing about 27.7% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of 2.1% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.24 on revenues of $569.57 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.86 on revenues of $2.16 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Financial - Miscellaneous Services is currently in the bottom 43% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to the top 50% [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Qfin Holdings Inc. was unfavorable ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, suggesting expected underperformance in the near future [6]

| 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 | | | --- | --- | | 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 | 不適用 | | 其他信息 | | | 納斯達克美國存託股票代碼: QFIN | | | 發行人董事 | | | 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括董事吳海生先生、徐祚立先生及趙丹先生；及獨立董事肖鋼先生、閻焱先生、趙帆先生、陳曉歡 | | | 先生、劉祥革先生及焦嬌女士。 | | 第 1 頁 共 2 頁 v 1.1.1 EF001 EF001 免責聲明 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | --- | --- | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 奇富科技股份有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 03660 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 2025財年下半年度股息公告 | | 公告日期 | 2026年3月18日 | | 公 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Qfin Holdings, Inc. 奇富科技股份有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：3660） 2025年第四季度及全年財務業績 及半年度股息公告 我們謹此公佈截至2025年12月31日止第四季度及截至該日止年度全年的未經審核 財務業績（「2025年第四季度及2025財年財務業績」）以及半年度股息。 2025 年第四季度及 2025 財年財務業績可於香港聯合交易所有限公司網站 www.hkexnews.hk及我們的網站https://ir.qfin.com查閱。 承董事會命 奇富科技股份有限公司 首席執行官 吳海生 香港，2026年3月18日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括董事吳海生先生、徐祚立先生及趙丹先生；及 獨立董事肖鋼先生、閻焱先生、趙帆先生、陳曉歡先生、劉祥革先生及焦嬌女士。 1 奇富科技公佈2025年第四季度及全年未經審核財務業績並 增派半年度股息 中國上海，2026年 ...

SHANGHAI, China, March 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Qfin Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN; HKEx: 3660) (“Qfin Holdings” or the “Company”), a leading AI-empowered Credit-Tech platform in China, today announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and raised semi-annual dividend. Fourth Quarter 2025 Business Highlights As of December 31, 2025, our platform has connected 167 financial institutional partners and 291.3 million consumers*1 with potential credit ...

本公司管理團隊將於美國東部時間2026年3月17日（星期二）下午八時三十分（北 京╱香港時間2026年3月18日（星期三）上午八時三十分）主持電話會議。 所有有意參與電話會議的與會者務必使用以下鏈接在線上作好提前登記。 登記鏈接：https://s1.c-conf.com/diamondpass/10053496-puzjin.html 1 登記後，每位與會者將收到電話會議的詳情，包括撥入號碼及專屬進入PIN。請 於電話會議擬定開始時間前10分鐘撥入。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Qfin Holdings, Inc. 奇富科技股份有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：3660） 董事會會議日期 及刊發2025年第四季度及全年 財務業績公告日期 奇富科技股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）將於2026年3月17日（星期 二）（北京╱香港時間）舉行董事會會議，旨在（其中包括）批准本公司截至2025年 12月 ...