Hello -陌陌主站调整影响2024年收入及利润，或加大海外业务投入

Investment Rating - Neutral rating for Momo Group (MOMO US) with a target price of $6.60, implying a potential upside of 10.7% [1][2] Core Views - Momo's Q4 2023 revenue of RMB 3.0 billion slightly exceeded expectations, down 7% YoY and 1% QoQ [1] - Adjusted net profit of RMB 520 million in Q4 2023, 6% above expectations, with adjusted net margin improving to 17% YoY [1] - Weak consumer sentiment in live streaming and social spending continues to pressure Momo and Tantan revenues [1] - Momo's main platform revenue declined 9% YoY in Q4 2023 due to reduced live streaming gifting and social spending [1] - Tantan revenue dropped 21% YoY in Q4 2023, with MAU continuing to decline and paying members decreasing by 200k QoQ [1] - New applications revenue grew 43% YoY and 8% QoQ, driven by rapid growth of overseas social product Soulchill [1] Financial Projections - 2024 revenue guidance of RMB 24.5-25.5 billion for Q1, below previous expectations by 4-7% [2] - Momo main platform revenue expected to decline 15% YoY in 2024 due to reduced event operations [2] - Tantan revenue projected to drop 22% YoY in 2024 as focus shifts to exploring commercialization models [2] - Adjusted operating margin expected to decline to 18% in 2024, down 3 percentage points YoY [2] - 2024 revenue forecast of RMB 10.7 billion, down 10.9% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast of RMB 1.7 billion, down 20.5% YoY [4] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - Target price reduced to$ 6.60 based on 5x 2024 P/E ratio, down from $8.30 [2] - Share price has corrected 22% post-earnings, largely reflecting profit downgrade and dividend cut [2] - Net cash position of$ 1.6 billion as of end-2023, representing 140% of market cap [2] - Shareholder returns remain attractive with 9% dividend yield and $290 million buyback plan [2] Operational Metrics - Momo's live streaming revenue declined 9% YoY in Q4 2023 [1] - Tantan's live streaming revenue dropped 39% YoY in Q4 2023 [8] - Momo's VAS revenue decreased 10% YoY in Q4 2023 [1] - Tantan's VAS revenue fell 13% YoY in Q4 2023 [8] - Marketing expenses as percentage of revenue improved by 3 percentage points YoY and 2 percentage points QoQ [1]