GEELY AUTO(00175) 东吴证券·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report shows a strong gross margin performance, with a robust new car cycle expected to continue in 2024 [1] - The company achieved a record high in sales volume in 2023, driven by economies of scale and cost reductions, leading to a significant improvement in gross margin [3] - The company's 2024 sales target is 1.9 million units, a 13% YoY increase, with a strong new car cycle expected to drive continued high growth [3] - The company is accelerating its globalization and intelligentization efforts, with the Starwise Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform enabling rapid deployment of urban intelligent driving [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached 179.85 billion yuan, a 21% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.308 billion yuan, a 1% YoY increase [2] - 2023H2 revenue was 106.02 billion yuan, an 18% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.737 billion yuan, a 0.8% YoY increase [2] - 2023H2 gross margin was 15.92%, a 2.08 pct YoY increase and a 1.51 pct QoQ increase [3] - 2023H2 sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 6.6%, 5.4%, and 1.4%, respectively, with sales and R&D expenses increasing due to new platform architectures and channel network expansion [3] Sales and Market Share - 2023 total sales volume was 1.6865 million units, an 18% YoY increase, with 992,500 units sold in H2, a 21% YoY increase [3] - Lynk & Co, Geely, and Zeekr brands sold 138,000, 756,000, and 76,000 units, respectively, with average selling prices of 107,300, 161,500, and 336,200 yuan, respectively [3] - Zeekr brand significantly reduced losses in H2, with a net loss of 325 million yuan, a 960 million yuan YoY reduction and a 490 million yuan QoQ reduction [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch 6 new fuel vehicle models, 2 pure electric models under the Galaxy brand, and 1 plug-in hybrid model under the Lynk & Co brand in 2024 [3] - Zeekr will introduce new models, including the Mix "3+3" series and 2 pure electric SUV/MPV products, to enrich its product matrix [3] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands expanding into Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Latin America markets [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected to be 213.465 billion yuan, an 18.69% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.929 billion yuan, a 49.37% YoY increase [2] - 2025E revenue is projected to be 258.106 billion yuan, a 20.91% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.459 billion yuan, a 44.53% YoY increase [2] - 2026E revenue is projected to be 300.070 billion yuan, a 16.26% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.816 billion yuan, a 20.56% YoY increase [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024E EPS is projected to be 0.79 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.20 [2] - 2025E EPS is projected to be 1.14 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 7.06 [2] - 2026E EPS is projected to be 1.37 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 5.85 [2]