喜力销量增速接近60%，高端化继续较快推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" [1][2][8] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 38.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.153 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year. The beer business revenue was 36.865 billion yuan, with a total beer sales volume of 11.151 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year. The high-end product sales volume increased by 18.9% to 2.5 million kiloliters, with Heineken sales growing nearly 60% [1][4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 38.932 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.153 billion yuan. The beer business contributed 36.865 billion yuan in revenue, with a total sales volume of 11.151 million kiloliters. The high-end product sales volume increased by 18.9% to 2.5 million kiloliters, while Heineken sales volume exceeded 600,000 kiloliters, growing nearly 60% year-on-year [1][4][5] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the company was 41.4%, with the beer business gross margin at 40.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Cost pressures eased significantly compared to 2022, primarily due to a decline in packaging costs. The effective tax rate returned to 26.3%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, which limited the net profit margin increase to 13.2%, up 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [1][5][6] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company will continue to focus on high-end products such as Heineken, Pure Draft, and SuperX, with plans for nationwide expansion in 2024. The white wine business is expected to gain momentum with new product launches, following significant inventory clearance and price stabilization efforts in 2023 [1][6][7][8] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast, expecting total revenue of 41.538 billion yuan in 2024, 44.183 billion yuan in 2025, and 46.926 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.027 billion yuan in 2024, 6.996 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.101 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.0%, 16.1%, and 15.8% [1][3][8]