交通运输行业估值方法论探讨：高速公路：从板块的特殊性出发，构建有效估值指标及选股框架

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation sector, specifically the highway industry for 2024 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the unique valuation characteristics of highway companies, focusing on the construction of comparable horizontal indicators and establishing a stock selection framework based on these indicators [1] Summary by Sections 1. Valuation Characteristics of the Highway Industry - The existence of toll collection periods leads to significant differences in the valuation system of highway companies compared to typical companies [2] - Highway companies do not own the highways but possess toll rights for a limited period (25-30 years), making direct comparisons of PE ratios across companies challenging [2][11] - The non-perpetual nature of highways results in higher market demands for dividend yield stability and predictability [2][17] 2. Construction of Comparable Valuation Indicators - A new horizontal comparable valuation indicator is proposed based on debt repayment perspectives, focusing on the ratio of debt repayment period to remaining toll collection period [3][20] - Key indicators for investment value include operating net cash flow, enterprise value (EV), and the weighted average remaining toll collection period [3][23] 3. Stock Selection Framework - The stock selection process follows an objective-to-subjective approach, examining absolute valuation, relative valuation, and growth potential [4][27] - Absolute valuation should consider the debt repayment period relative to the remaining toll collection period [4][28] - Relative valuation focuses on dividend yield and its stability, with a preference for companies with a history of maintaining or increasing dividends [4][31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the investment value of the highway sector may continue to rise due to the combination of renovation cycles and declining interest rates [5][6] - The ongoing improvement in corporate governance and the potential for increased dividend payouts are expected to enhance the attractiveness of highway stocks [6][30]