Soochow Securities·2024-03-20 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's cement profitability continues to be under pressure due to weak demand, but it outperforms the industry, showcasing its competitive strength as a market leader [12][18] - The company reported a total revenue of 140.99 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4% year-on-year [11][12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.96 yuan per share (before tax), with a payout ratio of 48.6% [11][16] Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company disclosed its 2023 annual report, achieving total revenue of 140.99 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.43 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, the company recorded a revenue of 41.96 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan, down 45.8% year-on-year [11][12] 2. Commentary - Weak demand has led to continued pressure on the cement business's profitability, but the company has shown resilience, with sales of cement and clinker products reaching 285 million tons, a 0.7% increase year-on-year, outperforming the national average [12] - The average selling price per ton of self-produced products was 273 yuan, a decrease of 48 yuan year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton was 68 yuan, down 23 yuan year-on-year [12] - The company expanded its aggregate and commercial concrete capacity to 149 million tons and 39.8 million cubic meters, respectively, contributing to a revenue increase of 73.3% in the aggregate and mechanism sand business [12][16] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to benefit from mid-term fiscal tools and infrastructure investment growth, although the actual demand release and stabilization of real estate investment need to be observed [18] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 9 billion, 11.2 billion, and 12.9 billion yuan, respectively [18] - The company maintains a competitive advantage in cost leadership during industry downturns, and its expansion into upstream and downstream businesses provides new growth points [18]