Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintains the expectation of three rate cuts within the year, aligning with market predictions of a total reduction of 75 basis points (BP) by the end of 2024[2][3] - The latest dot plot indicates a median policy rate forecast for 2024 at 4.50-4.75%, confirming the expectation of three rate cuts[7] - FedWatch shows market anticipation for the first rate cut to begin in June 2024[3][12] Group 2: Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised upward to 2.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points (PCTS) from the previous estimate of 1.4%[13] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 has been slightly adjusted down from 4.1% to 4.0%, indicating a more optimistic view on the labor market[4][25] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 have been raised from 2.4% to 2.6%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures[48] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the dovish statements from Powell, U.S. stock markets saw significant gains, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.89%, 1.25%, and 1.03% respectively, reaching new all-time closing highs[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.27%, a decrease of 3 BP, while the two-year yield dropped significantly by 9 BP to 4.59%[3]
美联储2024年3月议息会议点评：美联储维持年内3次降息预期，鲍威尔偏鸽表态提振市场风险偏好
AVIC Securities·2024-03-20 16:00